On May 3, 2024, the United States confirmed the presence of Russian security forces at the same airbase where American forces were stationed in Niger. Simultaneously, a significant message was posted on a popular Kremlin-affiliated Telegram channel. The message included an audio clip of the famous Soviet 1980s rock song, "Bye Bye America." Shortly thereafter, American officials and the ruling military council in Niger agreed to a gradual withdrawal of U.S. forces from the country.
This withdrawal of Western military forces from Africa’s Sahel region was accompanied by an expansion of Russian influence. Russia has effectively gained an advantage in the geopolitical race in the Sahel, securing loyal allies, even though these nations are fragile. Moscow aims to expand its global influence, find new export markets, and access natural resources, making Africa an ideal opportunity to achieve these objectives.
In reality, the division of Africa by external spheres of influence has introduced the term "Russophonia," following the models of Francophonie and Anglophonia. This new term for countries that lean more towards Russia refers to a vast area prone to coups, stretching across the continent from the Atlantic Ocean to the Red Sea.
The expansion of Russian military influence in Africa, coupled with the rallying of African support for the BRICS Plus nations, has drawn significant attention and concern from competing global powers, particularly Western countries. The growing presence of Russian military forces across numerous African nations represents a strategic maneuver by Moscow to fill the security void left by the diminishing influence of European countries and the United States.
This article examines the growing influence of Russia in Africa, detailing its strategic objectives, the extent of its activities, and the consequences for both regional and global stability.
Russia's expansion in Africa is not a sudden maneuver; it is a calculated effort to reshape the geopolitical landscape in its favor by aligning with the Global South to establish a new world order. Russia's primary goal is to exploit gaps in security policies left by Western countries and gradually shift the balance of power. Unlike the Western approach, which often emphasizes long-term partnerships with political conditions tied to neoliberal principles, Russia’s strategy focuses on immediate gains. Moscow emphasizes tactical advantages and non-interference in the internal affairs of other states, thus upholding the national sovereignty of its partners. This approach allows it to quickly establish its presence and influence, creating a belt of military cooperation extending from the Atlantic Ocean to the Red Sea.
Furthermore, in its competition with the liberal world, Russia employs both soft power and military means. It leverages the appeal of non-liberal values to forge effective foreign policy alliances, undermine the credibility of international institutions, and reshape the global order. Russia's strategic narratives, advocating for a new multipolar world order, define the political objectives of its government. Moscow wields the authority to determine patterns of cooperation and partnership with the Global South, including Africa.
Russia seeks to present its model as attractive to African countries and contribute to its own economic development. To this end, it aims to develop bilateral opportunities for technological partnerships, which are drivers of development in the context of the Fourth Industrial Revolution. Given past experiences during the Soviet era, the demand for Russian technologies can grow significantly, as Russia possesses high competencies in fields that are currently highly demanded in Africa.
Transferring Russian technologies and cooperating in the scientific field not only benefit Russia and improve its image but also present Moscow as a force contributing to Africa's advanced development and enhancing its economic sovereignty. This allows Russia to establish a new "Russophonia" by addressing technological backwardness and training qualified personnel to promote specifically Russian technological solutions.
Additionally, Russia gains a broad "testing ground" for refining and improving its technologies, which are in high demand among the rapidly growing African youth population. This demographic represents a massive market for high-tech Russian goods and services. The Kremlin is determined to expand Russia’s presence in Africa, recognizing that the continent's natural resources, its 54 votes in the United Nations General Assembly, and its proximity to Europe provide Russia with a crucial ally and a strategic position to encircle its European adversaries.
The New Russian Belt
Russia is gradually expanding its military presence across Africa. In Burkina Faso and Mali, Russian forces are actively engaged, providing military assistance and forging cooperative ties. Signs of increasingly robust military cooperation are also evident in Niger. High-level political meetings, such as President Mahamat Idriss Déby's visit to Moscow in early 2024, signal deepening relations with Chad.
Moreover, Russia maintains a security presence in the Central African Republic, which may extend to the establishment of a base for the African Corps. Russian intervention in Libya, dating back to 2016, has played a significant role in the ongoing conflict. In the Sahel region, stretching from Senegal to the Red Sea, countries have turned to Russia to combat growing regional instability. For instance, Africa Corps troops—formerly known as the Wagner Group—have supported the armed forces in Burkina Faso and Mali in their fight against rebel groups.
Today, Russia is intensifying its focus on the region by solidifying its influence in several Sahel countries and seeking new partnerships further afield. This strategy may bring it into conflict with other global powers. The next potential battleground could be the coastal countries of West Africa. Russia's strategic interests in West Africa's coast are centered on securing military, diplomatic, and economic agreements with regional leaders, in exchange for strategic access to the Atlantic Ocean. This approach mirrors the U.S. military presence in Djibouti, where Camp Lemonnier provides the United States with strategic control over the Indian Ocean and the Suez Canal.
Amid the fragile geostrategic dynamics of the broader Sahel region, Sudan's Assistant Commander-in-Chief of the Sudan Armed Forces, Yasir Al-Atta, announced on May 25, 2024, that the government had approved an agreement originally signed by the former regime in 2019 to establish a logistical center for the Russian navy at Port Sudan on the Red Sea.
A Sudanese delegation, led by Deputy Chairman of the Transitional Sovereignty Council Malik Agar, has already visited Moscow to discuss military and economic cooperation, including mining and agricultural projects. The final agreement for the naval base is expected to be signed by the Chairman of the Sovereign Council, Abdel Fattah al-Burhan.
This broad range of activities underscores Russia's comprehensive approach to securing its interests across Africa, particularly in the African belt. By providing military support and forming alliances with African countries, Russia positions itself as a significant player in regional security dynamics. This not only enhances its geopolitical influence but also enables it to counterbalance Western influence in these nations.
Potential Consequences
Observers of African affairs highlight the emergence of a populist, anti-Western movement that possesses an organic nature. Although partially fueled by Chinese and Russian narratives and exploited by ruling military councils in various African countries, this movement centers on deep-seated grievances against former Western colonial powers. These grievances are exacerbated by the deprivation of rights and economic and political marginalization.
Western countries, including the United States, are losing influence in Africa, partly due to their failure to effectively counter terrorism over the past two decades. Many Africans are questioning the continued presence of Western powers, asking: "Why should the West remain in the region if we continue to suffer from the same problems, which have indeed worsened?"
Western powers have predominantly relied on militarized approaches and security arrangements with African countries, particularly in the Sahel region, neglecting sustainable development strategies. This neglect has created a "power vacuum" across the continent.
The West faces a growing challenge from Russia's expanding presence, which directly threatens its traditional spheres of influence. The strategic positioning of Russian forces along key geographical corridors, stretching from the Atlantic Ocean to the Red Sea, undermines Western efforts to maintain stability and promote democratic governance across Africa. This shift is poised to escalate competition and tension among global powers vying for control over the continent's resources and strategic locations.
In addition to geopolitical competition, the region grapples with significant threats from jihadist groups linked to al-Qaeda and the Islamic State. These groups have penetrated several coastal countries, including Benin, Ghana, and Togo. For instance, jihadist attacks against civilians in Benin nearly tripled in 2023, rising from over 30 incidents to nearly 80.
In response to these growing threats, the United States is attempting to establish drone bases along the West African coast to curb the spread of extremist groups. However, General Michael Langley (USMC), Commander of U.S. Africa Command, informed the U.S. Senate on March 16 that Russia’s information warfare has significantly reduced U.S. influence in Africa in recent years.
The expanding Russian influence in Africa carries significant implications for both regional and global stability. For African nations, increased Russian intervention could provide access to new military resources and training, potentially enhancing their internal security capabilities. However, this also raises concerns about long-term impacts on governance, sovereignty, and regional power dynamics.
A notable example is the deployment of the African Corps—a state-controlled military force—marking a strategic shift in Russia's approach to military influence in Africa. Unlike the private military company Wagner, the African Corps is directly controlled by the Russian state, ensuring greater oversight and coordination. Its first confirmed deployment was in Burkina Faso, supporting the military government led by Ibrahim Traoré. It is believed that African Corps forces have replaced Wagner in Libya, with future deployments anticipated in Mali, the Central African Republic, and Niger. This development raises critical questions about governance, accountability, and economic influence. Moscow complements its military presence with economic tools, including energy and arms sales, to deepen its influence on the continent.
The recent rapprochement between Russia and Sudan's Sovereignty Council, which threatens to push the country towards division and replicate the Syrian scenario with Russia securing a military base on the Red Sea, underscores this point. This situation confirms to Africans that international relations are governed by the language of interests. As emphasized by renowned Nigerian economist Claude Ake, the task of reforming their countries falls on their peoples: African problems require African solutions.
Russia’s extensive military influence in Africa signifies a substantial shift in the continent's geopolitical dynamics. By strategically filling the security vacuum left by the West, Russia is gradually establishing a military presence that stretches from the Atlantic Ocean to the Red Sea. This shift from Western to Eastern alliances in the Sahel prompts questions about the future of regional security and resource management.
Uncertainty looms over whether this transformation will reduce the violence perpetrated by extremist jihadist groups that have long destabilized the region. As the West appears to adopt a more passive role, it observes the Sahel moving forward into this new geopolitical reality—one that could potentially lead to continuous unrest and a reconfiguration of the broader African Sahel's geopolitical landscape.
